中国再现股市热，此次是否能持续？ IN

IN CHINESE STOCKMARKET mythology, the rarest of beasts is the slow bull. The past couple of decades have brought two fast bulls: vertiginous surges in share prices, neither lasting more than a year. Those soon led to fast bears when stocks crashed and, eventually, to slow bears as the descent became more gradual. Most of the time there have been what might be termed long worms as the market moved sideways, such that the CSI 300 index, a gauge of China’s biggest stocks, has averaged the same level over the past five years that it first reached back in 2007. The slow bull—a steady, almost dependable, rise year after year, well known to investors in America—has remained elusive.

在中国股市神话里,“慢牛”是一种最罕见的神兽。过去几十年里曾经出现两头“快牛”：股价两次飙升，但每次都没能持续超过一年。紧接而来的便是股价狂跌的“快熊”；随着股价下跌速度放缓，“慢熊”出现了。在很长一段时间里，股市行情相当平缓，即所谓的“长线虫”。比如，反映中国大盘股走势的沪深300指数，过去五年里整体持平，但这种水平2007年就已首次达到。美国股民熟悉的慢牛——年复一年的稳步增长，却一直不见踪影。

China’s indomitable punters now hope that a trundling taurus has at last arrived. Stocks have jumped by 16% so far in July and they are up by nearly 40% from their low in March. That might sound like another fast, doomed bull run. But some believe this one will be more enduring than those of the past.

坚毅的中国股民如今满怀希望姗姗来迟的大金牛终于来了。7月以来，股市上涨了16%，相较于3月的低点上升近40%。乍看之下，似乎又是一个奔向灾难的快牛行情。但有人认为，此次上涨和过去相比会更为持久。

For starters, China appears to be in much better economic shape than other large economies. Because investors must allocate their funds somewhere, there is always a comparative element to stockmarket performance. China is the only big economy forecast to grow this year, and is also expected to record the strongest rebound next year, according to projections published by the IMF at the end of June. There are grave concerns about the toll that the coronavirus might take in America during the flu season in the autumn. By contrast, China has shown every intention of smothering renewed outbreaks. That has given people and businesses greater certainty about the path ahead.

首先，和其他主要经济体相比，中国的经济态势似乎要乐观得多。投资者的钱总要有个去处，因此在投资时必定会对比股市的表现。根据国际基金组织6月底发布的预测，中国会是今年唯一出现经济增长的主要经济体，明年还将迎来史上最强劲反弹。新冠肺炎在今秋流感季对美国可能造成的死亡人数也让人大为担忧。相较之下，中国充分展示了阻止新一轮疫情暴发的巨大决心。因此，投资者、企业对于未来也有了更大的确定性。

Market dynamics also seem to be helping. Even after the rally, valuations in China are reasonable. The CSI 300 trades at 14 times the value of company earnings, far below the 27-times multiple of the S&p 500, America’s most-watched share index (see chart). Foreign investors have more ways to enter China’s previously walled-off market; many are compelled to do so, because its shares are now included in key indices tracked by institutions. During the first three trading days of July, 44bn yuan ($6bn) flowed into Chinese equities via accounts in Hong Kong, a record high for any three-day period.

其次，市场行情也呈利好态势。即便是在经济回弹后，中国股市的预期行情也相当可观。如今，沪深300指数的交易价格仅为公司收益的14倍，远低于美国最受关注的指标标普500的同一参数值的27倍。海外投资者有更多的方法进入一度封闭的中国股市；很多外国投资者不得不如此，因为中国股市纳入了许多投资机构追踪的关键指标。在7月前三个交易日里，有440亿人民币（60亿美元）通过香港账户涌入中国股市，创下三日投资新高。

Although more investors have started buying shares with borrowed money, the outstanding balance of such margin trading is just over half the peak it reached five years ago, during China’s most recent manic run. It is now easier for companies to list shares on the mainland, so new offerings should help absorb some of the cash rushing into the stock market. “This lays the foundation for a slow-bull market that could last for ten or 20 years,” says Chang Shishan of Kangzhuang, an asset-management firm.

尽管有更多投资者开始通过杠杆买入股票，但近期股市热中融资融券交易的未清余额也才达到5年前巅峰水平的一半。目前，企业在中国大陆上市的难度下降，新股发行可以吸收涌入股市的部分资金。“这就为后10年、甚至20年里的慢牛行情打下了基础。”康庄资产管理公司的常士杉说道。

Nevertheless, it is hard to shake the feeling that the optimists might once again be getting ahead of themselves. The outlook for profitability, which ultimately should determine share prices, is still grim. Over the first five months of 2020, industrial profits were down by 19% compared with a year earlier.

尽管如此，不可忽视的是乐观情绪恐怕有些过头。从根本上决定股价的盈利前景还尚不明朗。2020年前五个月的行业利润较之于前年减少了19%。

Most worrying is the way that the Chinese media are swinging into cheerleading mode. If past episodes are anything to go by, this is one of the telltale signs of irrational exuberance. “The clicking of the bull’s hooves is a beautiful sound for our post-virus era,” declared a front-page editorial in the China Securities Journal, a state-run newspaper, on July 6th. The Shanghai Securities, its sister publication, was less poetic but more direct in an article that was posted online on July 3rd: “Hahahahaha! It looks more and more like a bull market!” Healthy bulls need only a diet of grass. Injecting them with steroids is an invitation to trouble.

最让人担忧的还是中国媒体摇旗呐喊。若以史为鉴，这正是过分乐观的征兆。“嗒嗒的牛蹄声是疫情后的美丽召唤。” 7月6日，中国证券报的头版社论如是写道。7月3日，其姐妹刊物上海证券报也发布了网文，相较于前者没那么诗意却更为直接：“哈哈哈哈哈！牛市特征越来越明显了！”健康的牛吃草便可，注射类固醇只会别生枝节，自找麻烦。

编译：林卓玮

编辑：翻吧君

来源：经济学人（2020.07.11）

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